Rebel Group Mergers: A Marriage of Convenience

• In Event: Rebel Group Behavior in Multi-party Civil Wars

Abstract

Why do some rebel groups merge but not others? Theories on inter-rebel relations suggest that rebel groups often avoid mergers since at least one of the merging groups loses its initial identity and falls under another organization’s authority. Still, rebel groups occasionally merge as either one side joins the other, or two or more groups form a brand-new organization. In this study, I examine under which conditions rebel groups engage in a merging process. I propose a theory of mergers focusing on a set of structural and environmental factors: ideological symmetry, geographic proximity, and emerging threats. Whereas ideological symmetry addresses whether groups seek a similar form of government, geographic proximity demonstrates whether they operate in the same area. Emerging threats indicate increasing repression from the state army or a rival militant organization. Using cross-national data on mergers in the post-Cold War era, I have found that similar ideology groups are more likely to merge with one another than those with different ideologies. Rebel groups in the same operational fields are also more likely to go through a merger. Last, groups are more likely to merge when inter-rebel fighting occurs or the state undertakes large-scale attacks.

Author

• Sedef Asli Topal, Ripon College