Religious Messaging during Economic Crisis

• In Event: Religion and Politics beyond the Nation-State

Abstract

How do states mitigate public accountability during economic decline? Scholars of political behavior show that autocrats use conspiracy theories and media propaganda to reduce accountability pressure, especially during crises (Koehler-Derrick et al. 2022, Alrababa’h and Blaydes 2020.) Shifting public attention away from the economy is a particularly effective strategy for autocrats to maintain power (Rozenas and Stukal 2019, Aytac 2021). Less is known, however, about how religious messaging in particular can be a powerful tool for avoiding accountability (Grewal et al. 2019). We examine how states deploy religious institutions, and specifically religious communication through mosques, to minimize public scrutiny. We use a comprehensive dataset of Friday sermons in Turkey during a period of significant economic decline (2015-present). Leveraging text analysis and machine learning, we test whether and through what mechanisms the ruling Islamist party (AKP) have used Friday sermons in Turkey to weather economic crises and dominate elections.

Authors

• Ekin Dursun, Yale University

• Aala Abdelgadir, Stanford University