A Drag on the Ticket? Estimating Coattail Effects

• In Event: Following the Leaders? The Impact of Dynamic Individuals

Abstract

In this paper, we estimate coattail effects of Gubernatorial and U.S. Senate candidates on elections for the U.S. House. Using a variety of measures of candidate quality, we investigate the extent to which correlations between top-of-the-ticket and down-ballot quality differences can explain observed coattail effects. Additionally, we explore how a variety of other factors affect the magnitude of coattail effects: comparing presidential to non-presidential election years, open-seat races to races where incumbents are running, and whether coattail effects have diminished over time. We find weak evidence of coattail effects from Gubernatorial or U.S. Senate candidates, with much of the apparent coattail effects explained by the correlation between top-of-the-ticket and down-ballot candidate quality differentials.

Authors

• Daniel J. Moskowitz, University of Chicago

• Kevin DeLuca, Yale University

• Benjamin Schneer, Harvard University