Preaching Peace: The Impact of Pro-peace Messages on Civil Conflict

• In Event: Promoting Peace and Democratic Stability in Divided African Societies

Abstract

Can pro-peace messages from elites reduce civil conflict? I argue that such messages can reduce violent conflict by impacting the attitudes and perceptions of pro-peace norms of violent actors, such as militia leaders, and other actors that influence them, such as traditional chiefs. To test this theory, I examine a case in which pro-peace elite messages were highly salient: the Pope's visit to South Sudan. Leveraging the fact that access to radio was a major determinant of exposure to the Pope's messages, I employ difference-in-differences and event study designs that exploit variation in radio coverage throughout the country. I find that areas with radio coverage experienced a substantively large decrease in monthly fatalities in the three months following the Pope's visit relative to areas without radio coverage. These findings have important implications for the role that elites---including elites without direct control over armed forces, such as religious leaders---can play in influencing civil conflict.

Author

• Jimmy Graham, New York University