Do Rising Tides Sink Left-Wing Parties? Flood Hazard Areas and Voting in Florida

• In Event: The Impacts of Extreme Weather

Abstract

How does climate adaptation influence voting behavior? Climate change is leading to rising sea levels and increased flooding events. Floods are one of the most damaging types of extreme weather events in the United States, and designating flood hazard areas is a key way to mitigate their negative effects. We study how being included in hazard areas with mandatory flood insurance influences voting behavior. While insurance provides compensation for losses and can help minimizing risk, it can also increase costs for those who live in hazard areas. We leverage data on flood events, changes in hazard areas in Florida, and voting results in presidential elections and a ballot initiative on flood resistance measures to examine the extent to which the costs associated with climate adaptation influence voting behavior. Our findings aim to provide a deeper understanding of how climate adaptation can influence voting behavior and electoral outcomes.

Authors

• Christian Baehr, Princeton University

• Hanno Hilbig, UC Davis

• António Valentim, London School of Economics and Political Science