The Dynamics of Policy Opinions When the Party in Power Changes

• In Event: Political Parties and American Democracy Mini-Conference I: Going Negative: How Information Affects Attitudes

Abstract

Our paper provides an individual-level examination of the Wlezien’s thermostatic model of opinion change as well as the Coggins, Stimson, Atkinson, and Baumgartner elaboration on it. We test models of opinion dynamics over time using 8 waves of nationally representative panel data from October 2016-October 2022. By studying changes in policy attitudes from a Democratic administration (in 2016) to a Republican administration (in 2017), as well as changes from a Republican administration (in 2020) to a Democratic one in 2021 among the same individuals, we further contribute to an understanding of policy opinion dynamics over time when the party in the White House changes.

Authors

• Tom W Etienne, University of Pennsylvania

• Diana C. Mutz, University of Pennsylvania