How Does Affiliation with Transnational Jihadist Network Affect Groups’ Attacks?

• In Event: Terrorism and Violent Extremism

Abstract

Terrorism for the past 25 years has been shaped fundamentally by two global networks: Al-Qaeda and ISIS. Dozens of groups have formally affiliated with these networks, but the consequences of such affiliations remain unclear. Existing research studies cooperation more broadly, including low-level collaboration, but far less is known about formal affiliation with global networks. Some scholars argue that interorganizational cooperation has disadvantages for involved groups. Others point out that principal-agent issues could render affiliation largely meaningless. We argue that affiliation with transnational networks can lead to more attacks by the local groups, since affiliation provides resources and incentives to increase violence. We further argue that there are qualitative differences in types of affiliation, and that cooperation with AQ in particular should lead to more violence. Analyzing data on more than 75 Islamist militant groups, we find that groups generally engage in more terrorist attacks after affiliation. However, disaggregation suggests that the effects are only for AQ. These findings contribute to debates about the effects of expanding global terrorist networks, and they add to broader discussions about militant group relationships.

Authors

• Nihad Aboud, University of Essex

• Brian J. Phillips, University of Essex