Crisis De-escalation amid Misperceptions: Evidence from US-China Relations

• In Event: Searching for the Water’s Edge: Polarization and Foreign Policy

Abstract

How do perceptions and misperceptions about the power and resolve of a peer competitor influence public bellicosity in a crisis scenario? A longstanding intellectual tradition in international relations scholarship identifies elite misperceptions about an adversary’s capabilities and intentions as a source of crisis escalation. We shift the theoretical and empirical focus onto the public, investigating how mass perceptions and misperceptions about the adversary shape public support for crisis de-escalation. Exploiting an ongoing US-China dispute over Chinese unification of Taiwan as an experimental setting, we assess whether American citizens adopt a more conciliatory position in the Taiwan Strait crisis when presented with factual information that cuts against their preexisting understanding of China’s economic power, military capability, or public intentions. Our study contributes to the study of misperceptions and crisis escalation, and factual information and public opinion on foreign policy.

Authors

• Matthew Conklin, University of Chicago

• Eddy Yeung, Emory University