Unveiling the Dynamics of Refugee Return: A Panel Study of Return Behavior

• In Event: Multimethods Approaches to Studying the Politics of Migration

Abstract

Understanding the intricacies of forced displacement and subsequent return requires a comprehensive view of refugee return dynamics. Existing research often relies on cross-sectional data that measures return intentions, leading to important gaps in our understanding of refugee return. This paper addresses these issues with a 3.5-year representative panel study of 3,000 Syrian refugees, offering critical insights as the first multi-year panel survey of refugee return. Our theoretical framework employs a threshold model of return, underscoring safety as a prerequisite for return, and emphasizing the role of information in aligning intentions with behavior. Leveraging the panel survey, we empirically test this theoretical model to examine the factors that influence the return decisions of Syrian refugees and the relationship between intentions and behavior. By examining the actual return of refugees using a panel survey, this paper contributes significantly to our understanding of displacement dynamics and provides important insights for policymakers and humanitarian actors.

Author

• Ala Alrababah, Bocconi University