Political Violence and Anti-system Voting in Interwar Italy and Yugoslavia

• In Event: Protests and Violence in Democracies & Autocracies

Abstract

Does political violence destabilize democracies? If so, how? We investigate the effect of violence on electoral support for anti-system parties in two interwar democracies, Italy and Yugoslavia. Our theoretical argument identifies nationalist ideology as a key moderating variable that influences threat perceptions asymmetrically. Voters support violence against perceived threats to the nation. Violence committed by the “enemies of the nation” increases electoral support for nationalist anti-system parties. Posing as defenders of the nation, extreme right parties electorally benefit from violence targeted against the perceived threat. In contrast, nationalist violence that is not preceded by other attacks decreases support for anti-system parties. Using a fixed effects estimator at the level of counties, we estimate the effect of violence dynamics on vote choice at the municipal/county level. Comparing ideological conflict in Italy to ethnic strive in Yugoslavia will hold important lessons on the relevance of historical conflict to nationalist politics today.

Authors

• Stefan Stojkovic

• Edoardo Alberto Viganò, Witten/Herdecke University

• Nils-Christian Bormann, Witten/Herdecke University