How Post-conflict Demobilization and Integration Affects Support for Democracy

• In Event: Reintegration after Civil Wars

Abstract

How does support for democracy vary among former rebels and members of the armed forces after the end of a civil conflict? Existing research suggests rebels who integrated into the armed forces as well as members of the armed forces who served with former rebels should have more support for democracy and trust in the armed forces. On the other hand, rebels who altogether demobilized and veterans or members of the armed forces who fought against the rebels should both have less trust in an integrated armed forces and less faith in democracy. We test these pre-registered predictions in Nepal, where a peace agreement provided People’s Liberation Army (PLA) fighters an opportunity to either join the Nepalese armed forces or take a cash payment and demobilize in 2006. Simultaneously, Nepal transitioned from a monarchy to a democracy. In the summer of 2024, we expect to survey seven blocked samples of armed groupings: 1) PLA fighters who integrated into the armed forces, 2) PLA veterans who integrated, 3) PLA fighters who demobilized without joining the armed forces, either 4) veterans or 5) current service members that fought against the PLA and either 6) veterans or 7) current service members that did not fight in the Nepalese civil war. We will compare the results from these samples to a broader sample of civilians. We hope our findings provide insight into how the integration of rebel fighters into the armed forces affects attitudes about democratic institutions.

Authors

• Zlatin Mitkov, North Carolina State University

• Konstantin Ash, University of Central Florida

• Santosh Sapkota

• Michael Yekple, Bowdoin College