System Blame & Political Resentment: Minorities & Conspiracy Beliefs in the US

• In Event: Stereotypes, Prejudice, and Discrimination

Abstract

An illustrious body of research suggests that marginalized and excluded groups are more likely to perceive politics to be a series of conspiracies and think that real power lies in the hands of secret and unaccountable groups that often act against public interest. This project, based on several original surveys, offers a systematic analysis of the preponderance of beliefs in conspiracy theories among Non-Hispanic (NH) Blacks, Hispanics, Native Americans in comparison with NH Whites. We have two main theoretical expectations. First, minorities exhibiting higher levels of feelings of discrimination and resentment are more likely to believe in conspiracy theories - the notion of system blame captures these sentiments. At the same time, we also expect that support for conspiracy theories has a situational feature and is strongly shaped by partisanship - individuals who support the party and candidates out of power tend to express greater belief in conspiracy theories. We suggest that these two dynamics, grievances harbored by minorities in the face of discrimination and exclusion, and resentment by people who support the losing party and candidates propagating that the system is rigged are central to making sense of the complexity of conspiracy beliefs in the United States.
Following the conventional definition, we define conspiracy theories as explanations of events or occurrences that focus on powerful groups as conspirators acting in secret for their own benefit against the common good (Uscinski, 2018, p.235). Conspiracy theories range from the American military researching and completing experiments on aliens in Area 51 to Denver International Airport being the “headquarters” for the Illuminati to speculation over the involvement of sinister actors in the deaths of political figures, including former-President John F. Kennedy and Martin Luther King, Jr. Support for these theories in the US is not a new occurrence and has been consistent over time (Uscinski et al., 2022).
Douglas et al. (2017) highlights many motivations for believing in conspiracy theories including possible epistemic, i.e., desire to understand one’s environment), existential (desire for security and control, and/or social effects, i.e., desire to maintain a positive image of self/group. Other factors include self-reported political ideology (Min, 2021; Oliver & Wood, 2014), religion (Frenken, Bilewicz, & Imhoff, 2023; Robertson, 2017), and partisan affiliation (Enders et al., 2023) are all posited as having important effects that depend on the nature of the conspiracy theory.
Our main theoretical expectations are based on two dynamics. First, belief in conspiracy theories may be a “coping mechanism” that helps people to manage a lack of power, threat, or other challenges (Uscinski, Parent & Torres, 2011; van Prooijen & van Vugt, 2018). In light of this, it is not surprising that racial and religious minorities are more likely than other groups to believe conspiracy theories, particularly theories that appeal to their communities (Giry & Tika, 2022, p.113). System blame is a common explanation for support for conspiracy theories among minorities (Crocker et al., 1999; Locke, 2009) that suggests support for conspiracy theories is an acute example of marginalized groups blaming factors they do not control - external sources (systems, institutions, actors) - for issues they face as well as societal issues or occurrences. We expect that tendency to be prevalent especially among minorities expressing feelings of discrimination and exclusion. Next, conspiracy theories are increasingly being articulated and disseminated by political elites who lose elections or find such theories as valuable instruments for making gains on their opponents. Consequently, supporters of these elites are likely to harbor conspiratorial beliefs.
We use three waves of original survey data from 2022-2024 that contain items from the ACTS index (see Uscinski et al., 2022), and conspiracy theories relevant for each group, as well as an oversampling of minority groups. Our first survey (2022) provides a representative sample of Hispanics; our second survey (2023) has an oversample of NH Blacks, and our third survey (2024) has large samples of Hispanics, NH Blacks, Native Americans as well as NH Whites. We include a wide battery of questions in our surveys including items measuring racial resentment, discrimination, skin color and white privilege that allow us to test a variety of theoretical expectations regarding support for conspiracy theories among minorities. We conclude that belief in conspiracy theories dampen political participation and efficacy among marginalized groups.

Authors

• Güneş Murat Tezcür, Arizona State University

• Kenicia Wright, Arizona State University