What Drives Trust in the Military? Evidence from Africa, Latin America, and MENA

• In Event: Society, Regimes and the Military

Abstract

The institution of the military is making a comeback, as coups multiply in Africa, generals draw nearer to the political sphere in Latin America, and armies gain popularity at the expense of other institutions in the Middle East. In fact, according to public opinion surveys from around the world, the military is one of the most trusted national institutions in both democratic and non-democratic countries, exceeding the levels of confidence accorded by citizens to civilian government, elected officials, and the news media. This finding is especially surprising considering that many armies worldwide have a history of repression or domination.

In Africa, home to the highest number of coup d'états in modern history- with six successful coups since 2020- survey data show that approximately 62% of over 50,000 Africans expressed significant trust in their armed forces in 2022. In the Middle East, where armies are routinely deployed to put down mobilization, around 70 percent of surveyed citizens in eleven MENA countries trusted the armed forces a great deal or quite a lot. Latin American militaries, which historically led repressive regimes and interfered in political processes, are wading back into politics, often at the behest of civilian leaders. There, over 65% of surveyed citizens expressed significant trust in the armed forces.

Our paper sheds light on this phenomenon by investigating the conditions that lead to heightened trust in the armed forces across regions. It also explores how various factors- including regime type, war, conflict, and coup frequency- impact these conditions. After critically reviewing the political science, sociology, and psychology works on institutional trust and on support for the military and militarism, we select relevant variables that measure well-being, political ideology, and trust in other institutions. Drawing on this framework, we formulate a set of hypotheses that we test using nationally representative data from the Arab Barometer Survey, the AmericasBarometer Survey, and the Afrobarometer Survey in 81 countries in 2021-2022 using a panel data methodology.

We find several positive drivers of trust in the military, including being male, older, and conservative, as well as feeling safe, supporting democracy, and trusting various political and security institutions. In contrast, level of education, income bracket, economic security, and religious fundamentalism negatively impact trust in the military. Finally, we explore the effect of regime type, conflict, war, and coup frequency on the drivers of trust in the military. We find that regime type conditions the direction of the relationship between trust in the military and several variables including economic security and trust in government.

Keywords: Public Trust, Military, Institutions, Survey Research, Africa, MENA, Latin America

Authors

• Yasmina Abouzzohour, Princeton University

• Tarik M. Yousef, Middle East Council on Global Affairs