Party Decline Revisited: Reconsidering the Predictions

• In Event: Party Change and Party Adaptation in Democracies under Pressure

Abstract

Scholars of politics in both parliamentary and presidential democracies have been offering pessimistic diagnoses of “party decline” for at least the past half century, pointing to an array of different – and sometimes contradictory – mechanisms that were or are undermining parties’ political importance and capacity. This paper revisits the original predictions of party decline, asking the extent to which predicted changes have occurred in countries that have been democratic throughout the past century, and looking for evidence that identified changes have occurred for the predicted reasons. It then considers ways that some parties have responded to these changes, and what this tells us about parties’ likely future adaptations to rapidly changing political, social and communication landscapes.

Author

• Susan Scarrow, University of Houston