Linking Security to Norms: Experimental Evidence on China’s Nuclear Expansion

• In Event: Nuclear Weapons Posture and Proliferation in Asia

Abstract

Whether China will integrate into the rules-based liberal international order or the world will accommodate a rising China, is a heated debate and a concern for many. The issue of expanding China’s nuclear arsenal perfectly exemplifies this ambivalence. Where does the Chinese public stand on its nuclear future? We design and conduct a 2x3 survey experiment to examine the effects of security environment and international norms in shaping Chinese public’s nuclear attitudes. We have three major findings. Most respondents support nuclear buildup, whereas very few of them reject the principle of no-first-use. A threatening external security environment and the power status norm both have strong effects in driving up support for nuclear expansion. The anti-nuclear norm does act as a restraining force against expansion in a peaceful environment, however, its restraining effect is completely negated when external threats are present. A threatening environment even decreases respondents’ support for no-first-use. The results of this project have multiple policy implications, most notably on the issue of arms race between the United States and China.

Authors

• Li Shao, Zhejiang University

• Hongyu Zhang, University of North Carolina at Wilmington

• Rongbin Han, University of Georgia