For the Sake of Peace, Pipe Down! Conflict Risks of Fossil Fuel Investment

• In Event: Politics of Future Energy Resources and Technology

Abstract

Amid the global climate crisis, the imperative to cease new fossil fuel ventures worldwide intensifies. While halting new projects would undoubtedly curb the influx of additional carbon-dioxide from entering the atmosphere, this paper contends that assessing new fossil fuel endeavors must also consider their conflict risks. Despite the well-documented empirical link between oil resources and violence, the intricate dynamics of this relationship, influenced by a myriad of factors, have obscured precise causal determination. One specific factor, hitherto overlooked, is the role of pipelines which not only increase oil and gas supply but also harbor the potential to ignite conflict. Leveraging a groundbreaking time series database known as GeoPIPE, which includes information on both new oil and gas fields as well as pipelines, this paper embarks on a comprehensive exploration of the causal mechanisms underpinning the relationship between new fossil fuel investments and conflict. Preliminary findings suggest that the construction of new pipelines can act as a trigger for local protests. In contrast, extraction projects entail significantly graver risks, potentially leading to new conflict events and civil war onsets. Notably, the latter risk is closely intertwined with ethno-political factors, implying that efforts to halt fossil fuel projects might be most effective in preventing conflict within extraction regions inhabited by marginalized communities.

Author

• Yaron Alexander Weissberg, ETH Zürich