Network Analysis of Nuclear Energy’s Critical Elements: Uranium and Thorium

• In Event: Politics of Future Energy Resources and Technology

Abstract

Nuclear power generation has existed since the 1960s, expanding from the 1970s to the 1990s, before declining from the 1990s through present day. Despite the decline over the past 30 years, it remains a crucial energy source. Furthermore, there is a resurgence in nuclear energy development, projected capacity to jump by a historical amount between 2023 and 2030 to match the levels seen between 1981 and 1990. China and Russia lead the way, designing 27 of the 31 reactors that commenced construction since 2017. In addition to design, Rosatom (Russian State Atomic Energy Corporation) controls the acquisition, processing, and sale of uranium, essential for nuclear power, further expanding Russia’s influence. Despite the United States having a greater nuclear generation capacity, the growing international influence of Russia and China has captured the attention of US policymakers since the Trump administration. However, as countries invest in nuclear energy technology, there is an anticipated shift in the required resources. From 2030 to 2040, the generation-IV advanced nuclear energy system is will come online, using reactors that include lead-cooled fast reactors, sodium-cooled fast reactors, very-high-temperature gas-cooled reactors, and thorium-based molten salt reactors, each tailored to the characteristics of different countries. Thus, while access to uranium resources remains a vulnerability in terms of energy security for countries with limited uranium reserves (e.g., the United States, China), the growing importance of thorium and the expected expansion of the thorium trade network in the nuclear energy market provide alternatives. This work examines the current state of global uranium and thorium trade, with a focus on potential energy security issues as nuclear power generation accelerates. The United Nations Export Comtrade data is utilized to explore the characteristics of the global network over time, revealing a structure characterized by a few exporters, with Kazakhstan being the largest source of uranium, and several importers.

Authors

• Suleyman Orhun Altiparmak, Michigan State University

• Cameron G. Thies, Michigan State University

• Keith Waters