Criminal Electioneering & Democracy in Central America: Evidence from Guatemala

• In Event: Learning from Global Democratic Challenges and Innovations Mini-Conference III: Democracy, Dictatorship, and Democratic Backsliding in Central America

Abstract

In this paper, I examine one understudied mechanism through which criminal organizations like street gangs and drug cartels have undermined the integrity and legitimacy of democratic institutions in Central America: their deliberate efforts to influence elections outcomes, or what I call “criminal electioneering.” I develop a conceptual and theoretical framework to help explain (1) when criminal groups choose to engage in criminal electioneering; (2) why, when they do, their tactics vary along two key dimensions (the degree to which they target voters vs politicians and the extent to which they overt violence); and (3) how different criminal electioneering tactics shape voter attitudes toward democracy and toward hardline anti-crime policies. I argue that two key variables drive criminal electioneering outcomes at the subnational level: the degree of criminal competition and politicians’ access to local party resources. I test my hypotheses through a survey of voters in Guatemala carried out in the aftermath of the country’s 2023 general election. I discuss the implications of my findings for emerging debates about the relationship between criminal violence and democratic legitimacy and survival in Central America and beyond.

Author

• Manuel Meléndez-Sánchez, Harvard University