Taiwan in US-China Security Competition: War and Deterrence

• In Event: How Do Americans View Taiwan?

Abstract

What are the prospects of war in the Taiwan Strait? How is effective deterrence achieved? Taiwan occupies a pivotal place in the Indo-Pacific regional security architecture. Beijing threatens to use force if Taiwan is not unified with China, while the United States provides military assistance to the island and insists on peaceful resolution of the dispute. As US-China security competition heats up, the strategic value of Taiwan is rising for both sides, setting the stage for potential conflict. As present, Chinese strategy appears to be in the process of shifting from deterring independence to compelling unification. Beijing’s acquisition of Taiwan will greatly enhance Chinese sea power but poses a serious challenge to US security interests in the Indo-Pacific. Tensions are expected to rise after the election of President Lai Ching-te in 2024, whom Beijing has accused of promoting Taiwan independence. In light of China’s growing ambitions and capabilities as well as changes in Taiwan’s domestic politics, this paper will evaluate the prospects of war in the Taiwan Strait and makes a case for effective deterrence. I argue that war in the Taiwan Strait is unlikely in the short run because China does not have the military capability to achieve a quick victory in an amphibious assault on the island. Deterring a Chinese attack in the long run requires an artful mix of credible threats and credible assurances.

Author

• Yuan-kang Wang, Western Michigan University