Mission Accomplished? Varied Effects of State Repression on Opposition Strength

• In Event: Transitional and Transnational Justice and Democracy in Korean Politics

Abstract

This paper investigates how autocratic regimes' repressive tactics affect the strength of opposition parties, a topic of ongoing debate in the literature. I argue that the impact of state repression on opposition strength in semi-competitive elections is contingent on two key factors: voters’ access to alternative information sources and their perceived identity of the victims, factors that vary across different forms of repression. For example, public protests, often witnessed by many, contrast with the clandestine nature of espionage activities that make the truthfulness of state allegations more difficult for voters to assess. In addition, while alleged spies are viewed as external threats justifying state action, protestors, especially when non-violent and numerous, are typically viewed as innocent citizens. The argument is empirically tested in the case of South Korea’s 1973 and 1978 legislative elections under right-wing dictator Park Chung-hee in the context of the Cold War, with a particular focus on the New Democratic Party (NDP). An original subnational dataset, comprising a wide range of sources including over 130,000 newspaper articles as well as records from student and labor movement organizations, underpins the analysis. The results corroborate my hypotheses: In districts that underwent more state crackdowns on non-violent, collective forms of resistance like protests, NDP’s vote share significantly increased in the subsequent election. Conversely, electoral support for the NDP was undermined in districts that experienced more arrests of individuals labeled as collaborators or spies of North Korea. These findings remain robust to the inclusion of data that I compile from South Korea's Truth and Reconciliation Commission reports as well as more traditional electoral influencers like government distributive programs and demographic factors. The resulting implication is that state repression can inadvertently strengthen the opposition in the polls, especially when it targets perceived ordinary citizens and more alternative information sources regarding the repressive incidents are accessible to voters. The findings also highlight the effectiveness of peaceful protest as a form of resistance. Beyond short-term electoral outcomes, this paper also explores the potential long-term consequences of repression by examining the ideological and issue positions of former victims who were later voted into office in democratic South Korea. This analysis shows how repression can leave enduring legacies in young democracies by shaping the composition of political elites.

Author

• Yeilim Cheong, UC San Diego