Immigration Shocks and Political Responses: The Venezuelan Migration Crisis

• In Event: Migration Shocks: Bureaucrats, Citizens, and Migrants

Abstract

This study investigates how politicians reshape their agendas in response to unexpected events that elevate previously minor issues to major public concerns. Focusing on the Venezuelan crisis and the sudden inflow of over 6.1 million immigrants into Latin American countries, unaccustomed to such flows, we examine whether politicians develop distinct policy agendas in light of such shocks. Using computational text analysis on over 3 million tweets from Chilean and Peruvian parliamentarians (2013-2021), we find that while all party families have increased their attention to immigration, they differ in their approaches. While right-wing legislators focus on regulatory aspects and mention Venezuelan leaders Maduro or Chavez, left-wing legislators emphasize human rights, especially concerning women and children.

Moreover, to more accurately estimate causal effects, we concentrated on Chile, utilizing a dual approach: a two-way fixed-effects model analyzing municipality and year levels, and an IV strategy with a shift-share instrument based on immigration's supply-push by nationality. Our findings reveal that politicians in regions heavily affected by immigration shifts emphasize immigration issues, particularly its impact on employment.

These findings shed light on how political parties adopt a new issue and make it their own by recalibrating their framing. Moreover, it contributes to our understanding of the severe migration crisis that Latin America is currently experiencing, and more generally informs us about politicians' responses in South-South migration contexts.

Authors

• Valentina Gonzalez-Rostani, Princeton University

• Jose Incio, Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú

• Guillermo Lezama, University of Pittsburgh