Restrictions of Ethnic Rights and Violent Conflict Escalation

• In Event: Ethno-National Conflict

Abstract

This paper argues that improving our understanding of the causes of civil wars requires paying increased attention to conflict dynamics and the process of conflict escalation. In this vein, I study the role of ethnic rights restrictions – a form of nonviolent repression – in the escalation of self-determination conflicts from nonviolent claims to armed conflict. Using new, global data and a difference-in-differences design, I find that ethnic rights restrictions substantially increase the short-term risk of violent escalation. Critically, the risk of escalation increases not just after major autonomy restrictions, but also after more minor restrictions of ethnic rights, which are much more numerous and therefore have greater explanatory power. In further analyses, I find that ethnic rights restrictions are particularly likely to lead to violent escalation where dangerous structural antecedents are in place, including pre-existing ethnic grievances and low state capacity. These results are consistent with both grievance and bargaining theories of war and will help to improve early warning systems.

Author

• Micha Germann