When Protest Diffusion Fails: A Natural Experiment of Mahsa Amini Protests

• In Event: Political Trust

Abstract

While the Arab Spring in 2011 diffused throughout the region including the Islamic Republic of Iran, the death in custody of Mahsa Amini in 2022, which sparked a nationwide protest in Iran, had little diffusion effect on the neighboring Arab region. Why did the protest diffusion fail? Most importantly, what impact, if any, did this incident have on the Arab public opinion if not altering political behavior? From the evidence of a natural experiment of an interrupted survey, Arab Opinion Index 2022, I find a positive but delayed and short-lived effect on institutional trust and corruption perception in Libya and Mauritania during the period. In specific, survey respondents were more likely to show trust for the institutions and respond there is less corruption at home. However, respondents who have a social media account tend to have a more critical view on these matters than those who do not. This paper contributes on the literature on the diffusion of protest and mobilization fails by exploring how it alters public opinion, before it triggers change in political behavior.

Author

• Dain Yoo, Georgetown University