How Expert Ratings May Bias Corruption Indicators

• In Event: Poster Session: Posters in Political Methodology

Abstract

Governance indicators are employed to evaluate governments’ performance and the determine the allocation of foreign aid. To understand the potential biases in these indicators, we analyzed 22 major governance indicators and found that more than half of the indicators’ data sources are expert ratings. Furthermore, our analysis reveals that experts’ ratings are positively correlated with public perceptions only among wealthy nations. In contrast, experts’ ratings of governance performance diverged wildly from public opinion in the developing world. Evidence from observational data and a quasi-experimental design demonstrates that ratings based on expert reviews on corruption control fluctuate with one-shot economic shocks.

Authors

• Zhenhuan Lei, University of Wisconsin, Madison

• Shiyao Liu, Peking University

• Tianyang Xi, Peking University

• Jiaqi Zhao, Peking University