The Dragon or the Eagle? Examining Taiwanese Strategic Shifts Post-2024 Elections

• In Event: Local Ballots, Global Ties: U.S.-China-Taiwan Relations in the Presidential Vote

Abstract

Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) secured an unprecedented third consecutive victory in the 2024 presidential election. The decision made by Taiwanese voters signifies that Taiwan will further distance itself from China in the coming years. However, in the uncertain geopolitical environment and amid the competition between the United States and China, Taiwan’s path forward is akin to walking on a tightrope. Utilizing survey data collected in Taiwan before and after the election, this article aims to investigate changes and continuity in Taiwanese strategic preferences between China and the United States. Our findings suggest that while Taiwanese preferences for strategic choices continue to center around either aligning with the U.S. or with China, the distribution becomes more polarized after the election. Factors such as the Chinese threat, the possibility of a Chinese invasion, and U.S. commitment to Taiwan are the driving forces behind this phenomenon. This article helps us understand shifts in Taiwanese preferences between China and the U.S. and contributes to the literature on public opinion, international relations theory, and policymaking.

Author

• Kuan-chen Lee, Institute for National Defense and Security Research