Comparative Analyses of Violent Conflicts in Ethiopia (1997-2021)

• In Event: Poster Session: Dynamics of International Conflict and Competition

Abstract

Abstract
The study aimed to scrutinize and compare the dynamics, patterns, actors, and interactions in Ethiopia's violent conflicts, leveraging data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) for statistical analyses and supplementing it with qualitative insights from reports and scholarly sources. In Ethiopia, violent conflicts are the predominant pattern of conflict, exhibiting significant variation in both geographical distributions across states and frequency over time. The actors in violent conflicts were: military forces, rebels, political militias, communal militias, and external forces. However, civilians as victims were also involved in violence against civilians and remote violence. The main pattern of these violent conflicts was battles, which primarily manifested as armed clashes, government regains of territory and non-state actors’ overtake of territory.

In recent years, Ethiopia has seen a surge in both the frequency of battle events and related fatalities. The interactions leading to these battles were primarily between military forces and rebels or political militias. Unique interaction patterns, such as conflicts involving communal militias and external forces or rebels, were specific to battles. Notably, external interventions mainly originated from Eritrea and South Sudan, highlighting a regional dimension to the conflicts.

The study also found that remote violence, though less frequent, was a significant pattern in Ethiopia's conflict landscape. This category encompassed various patterns such as chemical attacks, air/ drone strikes, suicide bombing, shelling/artillery/missile attacks, and landmines/improvised explosive devices (IEDs), with political militias being the primary actors. Interestingly, the frequency of such incidents has been on the rise, emphasizing the evolving nature of conflict patterns. The interaction patterns in remote violence predominantly involved confrontations between political militias and civilian populations.

Violence against civilians was another distressing pattern identified, predominantly manifesting as attacks, sexual violence, and abductions. The data revealed significant state-wise variations in the occurrence of such violence, with a noticeable increase in recent years. State forces were identified as main perpetrators of violence against civilians, responsible, for instance, for more than half of all sexual violence incidents. Other key actors in violence against civilians include political and identity militias. The nature of these violent acts could potentially constitute war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide. All involved parties have escalated their violent actions in recent years, leading to a substantial rise in civilian fatalities. The civil unrest in the Oromia and Amhara regions primarily drove the increase in violent conflict events between 2015 and 2018, whereas the Tigray war was a key factor in 2020 and 2021.

The root causes of these conflicts can be traced to institutional and governance failures within the country. Given the deadly and destructive nature of these conflicts, concerted efforts from all stakeholders, including regional and international actors, are critical to resolve these conflicts peacefully. Effective enforcement of appropriate governance institutions, as enshrined in Ethiopian constitution, across all regions of the country is crucial. Additionally, sub-regional and regional organizations, the international community, and great powers can play a vital role in promoting peace and stability in Ethiopia and the broader Horn of Africa region.

Key words: Violent Conflicts, Patterns, Actors, Interactions, Ethiopia.

Michael Tsegay Assefa
PhD Candidate in International Relations
School of International Relations
University of International Business and Economics
Room 223, Chengxin BLDG
Huixin East Street NO.10
Beijing,China 100029
Tel: +86 18600833465
Email: micheal.tsegay.assefa@gmail.com, micheal.tsegay@outlook.com

Author

• Micheal Tsegay Assefa, University of International Business and Economics