Capabilities, Consultation, and Reputation in Alliance Politics

• In Event: Alliance Politics

Abstract

Do state decisions to stand firm or back down in disputes affect their allies’ subsequent behavior? I argue that states prioritize capability contributions and the ability to consult with an ally over the ally’s reputation. Put differently, states ask what an ally can do for them today rather than what the ally has done in the past. I assess my argument with a mixed-methods approach. First, I surveyed 250 current and former U.S. foreign policy officials. Second, I investigated West German decision-making in two case studies. The results support my argument. The analysis challenges findings that reputation is critical in allied decision-making. My argument also highlights an important but underexplored role for consultation in managing alliances. Finally, the results complement studies that suggest leaders should base bargaining positions and decisions to fight on the intrinsic stakes of an issue rather than to maintain a positive reputation.

Author

• Paul C. Avey, Virginia Tech