Crafting Peace: Strategic Design of Peace Agreements in Civil War Resolution

• In Event: Building a Lasting Peace

Abstract

The academic debate on whether there exists a panacea or a failsafe strategy for resolving civil wars is ongoing and contentious. This study critically assesses whether the thematic consistency in peace agreement texts correlates with uniform outcomes in civil conflicts, specifically in terms of fostering lasting peace or precipitating conflict re-emergence. An extensive analysis of over 2000 peace agreement texts from the PA-X database is undertaken, employing quantitative methods to measure their textual congruence. The research identifies key content characteristics that are consistently associated with successful conflict resolution. Findings reveal that agreements with detailed, inclusive frameworks, particularly those that emphasize political inclusivity, effective disarmament procedures, and comprehensive post-conflict reconstruction strategies, show a higher propensity for replication and are more often linked to sustainable peace. The study also notes that the applicability of specific agreement components, such as power-sharing arrangements, is heavily influenced by the unique socio-political and cultural contexts of the conflicts. These results highlight the necessity for contextually adaptable, well-structured peace agreement templates as instrumental in the pursuit of lasting peace in post-civil war societies. It also substantially contributes to the discourse on peace and conflict studies, offering nuanced guidelines for structuring future peace agreements.

Authors

• Huiyi Lyu, Tsinghua University

• Chong Chen, Tsinghua University