Japanese Public Opinion in the Midst of US-China Power Competition

• In Event: Public Attitudes on China

Abstract

This research seeks to understand how the Japanese public reacts to their government's maneuvers in the context of the escalating U.S.-China power competition. Japan's unique position as China's neighbor and the U.S.'s ally, coupled with China's assertive stance on Taiwan and Japan's pacifist constitution, creates a complex geopolitical environment that significantly impacts Japanese public opinion, especially in terms of national security and foreign policy. However, there is a notable gap in current research regarding how Japan's dual role as China's economic partner and U.S.'s strategic ally shapes this public opinion. To bridge this gap, our study adopts a mixed-method approach, utilizing social identity theory and social dominance orientation to explore Japanese citizens' alignment preferences and threat perceptions towards the U.S. and China. A nationwide Internet survey will be conducted to collect diverse responses from the Japanese population on security-related issues, providing empirical data to test our hypotheses. The significance of this research lies in its thorough analysis of Japanese public opinion during a time of significant geopolitical shifts. It offers valuable insights into the societal factors influencing Japan's foreign policy decisions, which are crucial for policymakers, academics, and strategists dealing with Asia-Pacific geopolitics and the wider effects of the U.S.-China rivalry.

Authors

• Chia-hung Tsai, National Chengchi University

• Alastair Johnston, Harvard University

• Shane Hsuan-Yu Lin, Academia Sinica