‘Can’t Find My Way Home?’ Party Identifications after Two Landslide Elections

• In Event: Party Loyalty across Contexts and Commitment Levels

Abstract

Electoral landslides challenge standard theoretical explanations of voting behaviour as stable and anchored by party identifications. A reversal could be explained as constituting a deviating followed by a reinstating election, but this assumes party identifications remain relatively constant. Evidence of fluctuating party identifications challenges this assumption (Aimer 1989; Thomassen 1993). In a three-wave panel, using reported 2017 party identifications as a baseline, we examine the trajectory of identifications and vote choices over the next two New Zealand elections, in which large numbers of votes moved to the Labour party in 2020, and moved equally strongly away from it in 2023. We test the party identification anchoring hypothesis and investigate other potential sources of stability.

Authors

• Jack Vowles, Victoria University of Wellington

• Alexander G W Beyer, McMaster University

• Clifton van der Linden, McMaster University

• Shaun Bowler, University of California, Riverside