Labor Mobilization and Elections in an Autocracy: Findings from Belarus

• In Event: War in Ukraine and Its Implications

Abstract

The relationship between the working class and democratization has long been contested in the literature. Some scholars consider organized labor as a driving force behind democratization processes in society. Others, however, point out that the working class might bestow support upon an autocrat in exchange for welfare benefits. Using the case of Belarus under Alyaksandr Lukashenka, this study seeks to identify conditions under which workers might mobilize against the incumbent government in the aftermath of fraudulent elections. It is hypothesized that labor mobilization is more likely to occur at enterprises with an independent trade union and a prior record of work stoppages. Drawing on original data from in-depth interviews with Belarusian labor activists and news coverage on Telegram channels, the empirical analysis examines determinants of labor mobilization at large state enterprises in the aftermath of the 2020 presidential election and the ensuing political violence. This study speaks to a major debate in comparative politics literature on the political significance of the working class in non-democracies. More broadly, the study contributes to the rich literature on sources of autocratic resilience and regime fragility.

Author

• Olena Nikolayenko, Fordham University