The Effect of Transitional Justice on Affective Polarization

• In Event: Political Attitudes and Citizenship in Greater China

Abstract

Do transitional justice measures cause affective polarization? Drawing on social identity theory and the study of the authoritarian successor party, we argue that transitional justice measures targeting an authoritarian successor party may strengthen its supporters’ in-party identification and increase their resentment toward the incumbent party implementing the measures, thereby exacerbating affective polarization among the mass public. To support this argument, we focus on the case of Taiwan, where the implementation of transitional justice measures has long been the subject of intense debate and vigorous opposition by the authoritarian success party, the Kuomintang. Using a two-wave, preregistered survey experiment with a nationally representative sample, we randomly assign respondents to a control group and three treatment groups that present three different transitional justice measures—truth commissions, reparations, and removal of authoritarian symbols—proposed by the incumbent government, the Democratic Progressive Party. Additional analyses include an examination of the duration of the treatment effects facilitated by our two-wave design, as well as an analysis of a parallel experiment to be conducted in Spain to probe the generalizability of our findings from Taiwan. The preregistered experiment, scheduled to be fielded in June 2024, has broad implications for three strands of literature on the impact of transitional justice, the causes of affective polarization, and the role of authoritarian successor parties in democratic consolidation.

Authors

• Victor Yi-Ching Hsu

• Hsu Yumin Wang, Emory University

• Eddy Yeung, Emory University