Victors, Victims, and Nation Building

• In Event: Public Opinion in Contemporary Chinese Politics

Abstract

Recent literature in political economy and nationalism has advanced the idea that “war (victory) made the nation, and the nation made war (victory).” Victory in interstate wars generates a heightened sense of national identification, which in turn improves the likelihood of future successes in warfare (Sambanis et al., 2015; Alesina et al., 2020). However, the perception of national victimhood, which is associated with failures and losses in warfare or other major events, appears to effectively contribute to the construction of national identity in some countries. Social psychologists have also found that perceived group victimhood can increase group cohesiveness and identification (Turner et al., 1984; Noor et al., 2008), enhance ingroup trust (Rotella et al., 2013), and facilitate collective action against the outgroup (Bar-Tal et al., 2009).

This project explores the effects of perceived group victory and victimhood on national identification and regime support. I conducted a survey experiment in Hong Kong, where exposure to Chinese narratives is comparatively lower and variation in identity is greater. The experiments included three treatment conditions (victor/ victim/ mixed) and a control condition. Participants in the treatment conditions viewed two video clips portraying a historical military confrontation between China and Japan, each utilizing either a victor or victim narrative.

I find that mixed narratives — the combination of victor and victim narratives — are most effective in increasing national identification and regime support. Contrary to the potential expectation that such juxtaposed narratives might negate one another, mixed narratives instead amplify their respective impacts. Notably, the “comeback” stories which depict China’s path from initial victimhood to eventual victory exert a stronger influence than narratives that consistently portray China solely as either a victor or victim throughout the Sino-Japanese war.

The findings also reveal that victor narratives have stronger effects on Hong Kong citizens who perceive their nation as weaker and who identify more closely with Hong Kong rather than China. The first result corroborates the hypothesis suggesting that the marginal return on amplifying a nation’s perceived status diminishes for individuals who already perceive their nation as holding a higher status, which provides a plausible explanation for the Chinese government’s transition from a victor narrative during the Mao era to a mixed narrative that also underscores China’s suffering as the nation’s international stature continued to ascend.

Author

• Gary Leung, Yale University