Threat Perception and Taiwan Citizens’ Resistance to China’s Coercion

• In Event: Public Opinion and Policy Formation in Taiwan

Abstract

Taiwan is a democracy under threat. To force Taiwanese citizens to accept its “one country, two systems” unification plan, Beijing has relentlessly isolated the island country diplomatically and repeatedly threatened the country with the use of military force. Tension between China and Taiwan has further escalated after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Some observers worry that Beijing might be emboldened by Moscow’s aggression and try a similar move. The catchphrase, “Today’s Ukraine is Tomorrow’s Taiwan,” has circulated uneasily in the news and social media across the island. Recent public opinion polls have provided various findings concerning Taiwanese citizens’ willingness to fight if invaded by China. Pundits and commentators cherrypicked these findings that best suited their partisan narrative concerning the public’s determination to resist China’s coercion.

Employed the theory of threat, the proposed study aims to investigate Taiwanese citizens’ fighting will. Although common sense tells us that weakness invites defiance and toughness gets submission, the opposite may be true. To test these two opposing hypotheses, three waves of panel data collected on the island with both landlines and cell phones. With a total sample size of 2,989, these are national probability sample surveys. The collection of the first wave of data was completed on November 15, 2021, roughly three months before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine which provides the baseline information. The second wave of survey was conducted five months after the Ukrainian war started between July 5 and July 17 of 2022. The third wave of is currently scheduled in mid January of 2024.

Authors

• T.Y. Wang, Illinois State University

• Su-Feng Cheng, National Chengchi University