Man-Made Natural Disaster: Evidence from National Flood Detention Area in China

• In Event: Emerging Scholars Lightning Round: Graduate Student Research: Contemporary Issues in (Non)Democratic Governance

Abstract

Abstract: Extensive scholarly attention has been devoted to examining the effects of natural disasters on political phenomena. However, scant consideration has been given to the “man-made” disasters, exemplified by China's Interim Measures for Compensation for Utilization of Flood Detention Areas (hereinafter called “Detention Policy”), issued by the State Council in 2000. The Detention Policy delineates areas earmarked for flood diversion to safeguard proximate critical zones. Despite the absence of actual natural disasters, the Detention Policy has institutionally heightened the potential risk of such events in the region. Leveraging a comprehensive dataset encompassing 243 counties and county-level cities in China from 1997 to 2005, sourced from China Statistical Yearbook (county-level) and Census data, this study systematically conducts empirical analysis to discern the causal effects of the Detention Policy on residents' risk-resistant behaviours. Employing a difference-in-differences (DID) approach across multiple time periods, our estimations reveal statistically significant effects of the Detention Policy on the industrial structure and household size in the designated areas, manifested in a decline in agricultural output and family size. These outcomes suggest that the institutionalized nature hazard of the Detention Policy renders traditional agriculture and larger family units less resilient to potential risks, prompting a shift towards industrial pursuits and smaller nuclear family sizes that are more resilient to flooding. This study is poised to contribute theoretically to the discourse on disaster politics.

Authors

• Renhao Ye, School of Government, Peking University

• Xinyang Gao

• Xinyao Wang, Peking University