Explaining the Centre-Party Vote in UK General Elections, 1945–2019

• In Event: Voter Preferences in Multiparty Systems

Abstract

This paper will explain the variation in the Liberal Democrats vote share in general elections over the post-war period, 1945-2019 (N=21). It will demonstrate that the party's vote share has been on a long-term upward trajectory, largely because of favourable social change, such as the expansion of higher education and home ownership. It will also demonstrate that the Liberal Democrats vote increases as both major parties vacate the political centre. It will demonstrate that comparative evaluations of Conservative and Liberal Democrat competence also affected the party’s electoral performance, as did the leftward movement of the policy mood. The paper provides precise estimates of the impact of the party's participation in a coalition government (2010-15) on its subsequent electoral performance. It will shed light on the proposition that junior coalition parties are punished more than their senior partners. The models will draw on official vote share data, programmatic data from MARPOR, and annual estimates of the UK policy mood and party competence databases collected by the authors.

Authors

• John Bartle, University of Essex

• Nicholas Allen, Royal Holloway, University of London