From Suspect to Prospect: Gender Quotas, Political Career, and Voter Attitude

• In Event: Using Surveys to Measure and Explore Gender

Abstract

Gender Quotas (GQ) have emerged as a pivotal mechanism for integrating women into political structures and enhancing their participation. While existing research predominantly focuses on the immediate electoral impacts of GQs, there remains a niche in understanding their long-term influence on women's political careers. This study aims to bridge this gap by examining the sustained effects of GQs in Taiwan, a country with over seven decades of experience implementing such policies.

Taiwan's implementation of GQs in local council elections offers a unique case study for examining the enduring impact of these policies. Our study embarks on a comprehensive exploration by tracing the political careers of women elected through GQs. The findings reveal that many of these women politicians have successfully maintained their political careers without the reliance on quotas, contesting in subsequent elections and even ascending to national-level parliamentary roles or becoming mayors of townships and cities. Their continued success underscores the role of GQs in fostering short-term descriptive representation and long-term empowerment, enabling women to overcome gender-related barriers and flourish in politics.

Furthermore, we compare women elected through GQs with their male counterparts regarding the number of they run for office, and their likelihood of advancing to national-level parliamentary positions or becoming mayors. Despite GQ candidates initially having a lower vote share, they subsequently maintain or surpass the vote rates of others, often outperforming men in terms of political career achievements. This study demonstrates that GQ increase women's political participation and bring in more competent political actors, intensify political competition, and strengthen Taiwan's gender equality and democratic system. In other words, women's excellence has historically been structurally unrecognized in society. GQ promote women's political participation not because women are not competent but rather to correct these biases and eventually enable them to stand on a level playing field in political competition and demonstrate their abilities in the public sphere.

The second facet of the study addresses changes in public opinion. In addition to promoting more women to run for office, GQ also increases the exposure of female candidates to the masses, thereby establishing role models and potentially changing voter attitudes. In the context of local elections in Taiwan, a notable distinction is that female candidates in local councils embody visible and proactive individuals with agency and seamlessly integrate into the fabric of daily life in Taiwan. Female candidates are extensively exposed to voters through various approaches, such as handshake greetings, campaign signage, and face-to-face interactions. Especially during the campaign process in Taiwan's elections, large-scale rallies and gatherings are often held, with some specifically organized under the banner of women. The atmosphere of the election engulfs the masses, and the general public frequently comes into contact with various symbols of female candidates, thereby increasing exposure to female political role models.

We expect increased exposure to female political figures will change voter attitudes towards gender equality, including son preference, women's role in politics, and traditional values specific to East Asian families. This paper uses the Asian Barometer Survey to measure these attitudes, with four nationally representative surveys conducted between 2010 and 2022, recording respondents' gender, age, constituency, and other background information, which will adequately reflect the impact of role models.

Methodologically speaking, GQ can also serve as an appropriate instrumental variable to predict changes in voter political attitudes. The total seats influence the number of GQs in a constituency; for instance, in Taiwan's local elections today, a quota is mandated for every four elected seats but not for constituencies electing only three members. This unique arrangement engenders a “zigzag” function in electoral representation, allowing for a nuanced comparative analysis across constituencies with varying member allotments. In other words, the exposure to female role models varies exogenously across constituencies, providing an ideal setup for a rigorous causal examination.

Employing diverse approaches, including longitudinal data analysis of political elites' careers and survey analysis of voter gender attitudes, we not only shed light on the long-term effects of GQs on women's political careers but also offer novel insights into how GQ reshape voter attitudes and contribute to a more inclusive and representative political system. Doing so contributes to the discourse on gender parity in politics and offers a template for other nations grappling with similar challenges in pursuing gender equality.

Author

• Matthew Yi-Hsiu Lee, National Taiwan University