The Fog of Law and China’s Nuclear Strategy

• In Event: Ethical and Security Implication of Nuclear and Emerging Technologies

Abstract

Although China signed and ratified the 1977 Additional Protocols of Geneva Conventions little is known about how the law of armed conflict influences its nuclear strategy and operations. Yet other nuclear-armed states are now applying the law of armed conflict to their nuclear operations, and China is also better equipped than ever to do so because of the new capabilities it is acquiring through its current nuclear modernization effort. Does the law of armed conflict influence China’s nuclear strategy? This paper uses original Chinese language sources to answer this question from the perspective of China’s strategic community and its military lawyers. It also examines whether China’s nuclear operations comply with the law of armed conflict as interpreted by China’s military. To determine whether this relationship between the law of armed conflict and nuclear strategy is typical or exceptional for China’s military operations, the paper also describes how the People’s Liberation Army generally implements the law of armed conflict in their operations. This paper’s findings have important implications for scholars interested in how China is shaping the rules that make up the existing international order and practitioners interested in China’s conduct in warfare, given the increasing likelihood of a major U.S.-China conflict.

Author

• Fiona Cunningham, University of Pennsylvania