Did Vice-Presidential Candidates Decide the 2024 Presidential Election in Taiwan?

• In Event: Explaining the 2024 Taiwan Presidential Election

Abstract

The literature on elections and voting in the United States demonstrates that vice-presidential candidates, or “running mates,” can have a significant electoral impact. Devine and Kopko (2020) characterize their potential influence in terms of direct, targeted, and indirect effects. They find that running mates matter primarily in terms of their indirect effect on voting behavior, by shaping voters’ perceptions of the presidential candidate. However, this three-part analytical framework has not been extended to other presidential democracies, to explore whether and how vice-presidential candidates influence elections in these countries. We do so in this paper, by analyzing their impact in Taiwan’s 2024 presidential election. Taiwan has strived toward becoming a vibrant democracy in East Asia, albeit with constant threats to its sovereignty from China. This year’s election marked the eighth direct presidential election in the history of Taiwan. We argue that opinions of the vice-presidential candidates, following announcements of their selection in November 2023, did in fact affect presidential vote choice. Using Taiwan’s Election and Democratization Study (TEDS) surveys conducted in September and December 2023, we demonstrate that the gender, image, and qualifications of the vice-presidential candidates altered voters’ perceptions of their counterpart presidential candidates, which in turn influenced vote choice. Our findings have important policy implications and suggest further opportunities to explore the impact of vice-presidential candidates in presidential democracies, including Taiwan, in future elections.

Authors

• Yao-Yuan Yeh, University of St. Thomas

• Christopher John Devine, University of Dayton

• Li-Yin Liu, University of Dayton