Half of the Five Star: Characteristics of Those Abandoning the 5-Star Movement

• In Event: Italian Politics in a Comparative Context

Abstract

Within 18 months of winning its second consecutive general election (March 2018) as Italy’s largest party, the 5-Star Movement had dropped to polling 4th, halving its 30%+ vote-share, behind parties of both the right and the left. In those 18-months, the party participated in two governments within as many coalitions, one of center-right and one of centre-left. Literature on the incumbency penalty predicts a few points (e.g. 2% according to some scholars) decline in vote share, yet by September 2019, the national polls were predicting a 17-point decline in support. By the 2022 election, the party's support was barely about 15%. Scholars of party competition have identified additional electoral penalties associated with populists in power and with parties associated with the political center. As parties appear to converge, vote switching become more common. Using panel survey data from March 2018 through September 2020, this manuscript identifies individual-level characteristics of those who deserted the party and, conversely, those who remain loyal. Descriptive analysis will first call attention to the differences between consistent 5-Star identifiers, 5-star deserters, and the Italian public. Multivariate panel analysis will then identify to what extent the populist and protest supporters that led to the 5-Star’s rise remain a part of their constituency as compared to other predictors of voter behaviour: political trust, party system characteristics, and economic voting. Results of this panel analysis are then compared with the characteristics of 5-Star voters in the 2022 election.The findings highlight the implications of having populist parties in power and their electoral consequences.

Author

• Matthew Edward Bergman, Corvinus University of Budapest