Democratic Backsliding in Africa: Resilient Demand, Flagging Supply

• In Event: Democratic Norms, Backsliding, and Public Opinion

Abstract

The wind of democratic decline that is sweeping across the globe has not spared Africa. The recent rise in successful military coups coupled with the activities of violent extremist groups on the continent have further deepened Africa's democratic crises. How have these headwinds impacted public attitudes toward democratic and accountable governance norms and institutions on the continent? What are the main drivers of these attitudes? What do these tell us about the future of democracy in Africa?

Research and opinion pieces on democratic recession frequently focus on the supply side of the equation: the failures or shortcomings of government or elected leaders. In this paper, we make a case for distinguishing between the 'demand' side - what citizens want - and 'supply' side of democracy - what their government or elected leaders are able to offer. Drawing data from Afrobarometer, we show that in the African context, the demand side of democracy has stayed resilient even as the supply side continues to suffer significant erosion. This distinction is important in the debate about the future of democracy on the continent. We also show, contrary to standard arguments, that the level of demand for democracy in Africa is driven by popular perceptions and experiences of the quality of democratic institutions rather than that of economic goods and services i.e. the quality of democratic institutions explain citizens' demand for democratic governance on the continent than the delivery of economic benefits.

This paper contributes to the literature in two ways: first, making a clear distinction between the demand and supply sides of democracy allows for a more nuanced understanding and informed scholarly debate on the trajectory and future of democracy as as system of government on the continent and globally. Second, contrary to conventional wisdom, we show that the intrinsic value of democracy matters more to ordinary African citizens and helps to explain the demand for democracy as a system of government than the state or delivery of economic goods and/or services.

Author

• Joseph Asunka, Afrobarometer