Dynamic Democratic Backsliding

• In Event: Support for Democratic Norms, Values, and Principles

Abstract

Democratic backsliding occurs over time, but the study of how citizens respond to democracy-transgressing politicians has been predominantly static. Recognizing democratic backsliding as an incremental process in which elected incumbents have substantial leeway to choose their sequence of actions to subvert democracy, I introduce a new experimental paradigm to capture the intertemporal dynamics of democratic backsliding. Zooming in on US state democracy, I randomize different general pathways of democratic transgressions committed by governors—important agents of democratic backsliding—followed by measuring at which point respondents are willing to recall them as they incrementally erode democracy. The experiment thus allows me to test what pathway of democratic transgressions—incrementally increasing or decreasing the severity of transgressions—will maximize undemocratic incumbents’ chances of political survival. The preregistered experiment, scheduled to be fielded in February 2024, will advance our understanding of voter behavior amid and throughout the incremental process of democratic backsliding, elucidate which backsliding strategy will make it exceptionally difficult for citizens to oust undemocratic incumbents, and shed light on the robustness of American democracy from a new public opinion perspective that emphasizes the notion of time.

Author

• Eddy Yeung, Emory University