The Shape of Public Opinion: An Experiment on Politicians' Reactions

• In Event: Beyond the Mean: New Directions in Elite Behaviour and Political Representation

Abstract

Public opinion holds a central position in democratic politics, guiding policy decisions and shaping politicians’ views of the will of the people. This paper explores a crucial yet underexplored dimension of public opinion dynamics: the shape of public opinion. It is well-established that distributions with the same means can exhibit significantly different shapes. The seminal works of Galtung (1967) and Holmberg (1999) have highlighted the existence of A-, J-, S- and U-shaped opinion distributions. We investigate how the structure of public opinions interacts with political responsiveness. The study employs a survey experiment conducted with Members of Parliament (MPs) in eight countries from diverse political backgrounds to analyze politicians’ reactions to different shapes of opinions.

First, we examine how opinion shapes impact politicians' interpretation of public sentiment on a set of specific policy issues. Second, We investigate the extent to which opinion shapes influence politicians' willingness to engage with and learn more about the issues under consideration. Are certain shapes more likely to prompt active engagement from politicians? Third, we assess whether politicians exhibit a preference for aligning their positions with distinct and articulated opinions (A-shaped) or with more polarized and noisy ones (U-shaped). Does the shape of public opinion affect politicians' policy choices?
Our research addresses a critical gap in the literature by examining the implications of opinion shapes on political responsiveness. Our study builds on a theoretical foundation that recognizes the inadequacy of relying solely on mean levels of public opinion to understand political responsiveness. Previous research has often focused on correlations between means or medians of opinion support and policy outcomes, overlooking the crucial nuances of opinion shapes.

This study holds significant implications for understanding the complex relationship between public opinion and policymaking. It can illuminate why some opinions receive greater attention and responsiveness from politicians, while others remain marginalized. Furthermore, our research contributes to the broader discourse on political representation and the extent to which politicians prioritize clear and articulated opinions over polarized and noisy ones. By investigating the interplay of opinion shapes and politicians’ reactions, we provide a more comprehensive understanding of the factors that shape political responsiveness, advancing our knowledge of democratic governance and representation.

Author

• Mikael Persson, University of Gothenburg