Can Money Buy Trust? Social Transfers and Trust during the COVID-19 Pandemic

• In Event: Health Policy Feedback

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic spurred unprecedented government investment in social benefits and easing of normal administrative burden in program enrollment resulting in substantial declines in poverty and increases in program uptake (CBPP, 2023). This paper asks what the cumulative effect of these sudden changes in social transfers and policy design has been on citizen support for public health institutions. Public trust has emerged as a crucial element in compliance with public health recommendations (Choi & Fox, 2022; Daly et al., 2021; Lazarus et al., 2021; Viskupič et al., 2022). While there was backlash against public health authorities, millions of people across the country did adhere to public health guidance, even at great personal cost. Drawing from policy feedback literature, which posits that individual experiences with government services or policy programs can shape individuals' perceptions of the government and political participation (Campbell, 2003; Campbell, 2012; Mettler & Sorelle, 2018), this paper investigates how new and extended social safety nets and their policy designs lead to changes in trust in health institutions. We focus especially on four programs: two representing more universalistic policies (Stimulus Fund and Unemployment Benefit) and two representing means-tested policies (Medicaid and SNAP). The policy feedback literature indicates two mechanisms that could increase government trust through social transfers: resource effects, where material benefits of such programs foster popularity and a constituency to defend these benefits, and interpretive effects, where the way of distribution can convey messages and create perceptions towards the government and decreased political participation (Bruch et al., 2010; Soss, 1999; Soss, 2000; Campbell, 2003; Mettler, 2005; Mettler, 2011). This paper aims to examine both mechanisms by considering both universalistic and means-tested policies. Additionally, we consider the unprecedented number of beneficiaries claiming these benefits, including those who had never before considered themselves “recipients” due to job or income loss. This allows us to further investigate the differential effects on subpopulations, including job status, income, and party identification.

In this paper, we estimate the impacts of different types of social safety net programs during the pandemic, focusing specifically on trust in health institutions. Using Covid-19 Longitudinal Data from the Understanding American Survey (waves 20-29), fielded between December 2020 and July 2021, we conducted difference-in-difference analyses with individual-wave two-way fixed effects to compare changes in trust in health institutions among individuals who received policy benefits to those who never received or had not yet received the benefits. We also examined whether the effects of policy receipt experience vary depending on respondents' job status, income, and party identification.

Preliminary results suggest that policies, in general, have no effect on trust in health institutions, except for SNAP, which turned out to increase trust in health institutions. However, the results also suggest that policies have differential effects depending on party identification and income level. We find that the receipt of Stimulus Funds increases trust in health institutions for Democrats, while it decreases trust for Republicans. We also find that the receipt of Stimulus Funds decreases trust in health institutions for middle-high income Republicans, whereas it increases trust for low and middle-high income Democrats, with no effect for Independents. This demonstrates that the experience of receiving generous (universal) policy benefits during the crisis varies across ideology and income levels. In the case of more means-tested policies, such as Medicaid and SNAP, which are available only to individuals under a low-income threshold, we find that the effect of policy experience increases trust in health institutions for Democrats, with no effect for individuals with other partisan identifiers. This ongoing research demonstrates that understanding the indirect effects of policy experience during the crisis is important, and considering income and party identifiers together helps to understand the mechanism.

Authors

• Hyesang Noh, Rockefeller College of Public Affairs & Policy, University at Albany, State University of New York

• Ashley M Fox, SUNY at Albany