Hidden Transcripts of Ruling Elites under Authoritarian Regimes

• In Event: Elites Loyalty and the Survival of Authoritarian Regimes

Abstract

The prevailing scholarship on authoritarian stability emphasizes elite defection as a precursor to regime collapse. Contrary to overt confrontations, powerful elites in authoritarian states, endowed with substantial resources and influence, often remain loyal despite internal dissatisfaction. This research examines the puzzle of powerful elite’s inaction, proposing that beneath the surface of loyalty lies a range of covert resistance and subversion strategies. Drawing from Hirschman’s Exit, Voice, and Loyalty framework, this study proposes a novel alternative strategy for elites – defection in silence, where covert defection tactics range from horizontal resistance, such as undermining rival power, to vertical subversion aimed at destabilizing the incumbent authority. This multifaceted silent disagreement is not initially aimed at regime overthrow but rather at power renegotiation in the first stage, preserving elite status while clandestinely fostering political instability. The theoretical exposition is substantiated by a comparative case study encompassing Georgia and Turkey. The methodology embraces qualitative analysis through in-depth interviews with key political figures and observers, aiming to unravel the covert mechanisms elites deploy to navigate and manipulate authoritarian dynamics. This study outlines a path for understanding the hidden political undercurrents that could precipitate regime transformation from within.

Author

• Sahib Jafarov, University of Toronto