An Aggregate Analysis of Rurality and Race on Voting Behavior, 2000-2020

• In Event: Emerging Scholars Lightning Round: Undergraduate Research

Abstract

Within the study of identity politics there has been a renewed increase in studying white identities, in particular the link between rural consciousness, race (Whiteness) and political behavior. A large amount of work has occurred since Cramer's (2016) seminal work on rural consciousness was published. Much of this work has focused on the micro-level correlates and effects of rural identity, specifically through the lens of racial resentment and White consciousness, which are often correlated (Nelsen and Petsko 2021; Lin and Lunz Trujillo 2023; Lyons and Utych 2023). However, this work has overlooked the macro-level impacts of rural consciousness. In this study I seek to understand the relationship between rurality, Whiteness, and the vote from an aggregate perspective – by determining if the relationship between geographic rurality and support for Republican candidates has increased over the past several election cycles. To examine this question, I analyze aggregate level presidential election data, as well as the white and rural population of all counties in the 48 mainland US states between 2000 and 2020, I look both to understand whether or not rurality and whiteness both have an effect on voter support for Republican presidential candidates, and to understand which of the two has a greater impact on voter support for those candidates. I also seek to understand whether or not the effect of rural consciousness and race have increased over time.

My analysis utilizes county-level Census Bureau data and vote returns from each presidential election from 2000 to 2020. I measure rurality using the percent of each county defined as rural by the US Census Bureau. This serves as a stand-in for the measurement of rural consciousness, given the findings of Scala, Johnson and Rogers (2015) that observe an increase in Republican support as areas become further removed from urban centers. To measure the impact of racial context, I rely on the Census Bureau’s measurement of each county’s non-Hispanic White population as a percent of its total population. By regressing these two variables with each county’s support for GOP presidential candidates over the past six election cycles, I find that Whiteness has a larger effect on GOP candidate support than rurality does. I also find that the correlation of both Whiteness and rurality to support for GOP presidential candidates increased significantly over the study interval. Finally, my analysis also reveals a jump in the correlation between rurality and GOP candidate support in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections compared to previous elections where Donald Trump was not on the ballot. The jump occurred between the 2012 and 2016 elections, corresponding with Trump’s presence on the ballot. I argue that this effect is due to Trump’s populist and anti-elitism campaign messaging and style, which are closely linked with many of the ideas and feelings associated with rural consciousness. In further elections where Trump, or his anti-elitism and populist rhetoric, are not on the ballot, it is possible that rural consciousness may no longer have as significant an effect on rural voters’ support for GOP candidates as it did during the Trump era.

Author

• Matthew Duthaler, Bowdoin College