U.S. Reassurance during the Russo-Ukrainian War

• In Event: Nuclear Weapons and Military Alliances

Abstract

How effective were U.S. attempts at reassuring its allies and partners in the wake of the February 2022 Russian re-invasion of Ukraine? During this major crisis moment, the United States implemented a wide-ranging series of policies to support Ukraine, deter Russia, and reassure its NATO allies. These actions included broad sanctions, enhanced U.S. force presence in Central and Eastern Europe, and repeated verbal assurances. Yet these actions stopped short of a military intervention, with Washington refusing to impose a no-fly-zone or send forces to Ukraine. In handling this crisis, Washington had to contend with diverse allies and partners, who differed prior to the war on their willingness to engage with or to contain Russia. The United States thus faced a major reassurance challenge, the handling of which could strengthen cohesion among its many partners or create major splits. Using surveys of public opinion in 23 countries on 6 continents, we evaluate whether and why U.S. reassurance efforts in the wake of the war succeeded. We find that the measured U.S. response to the crisis was generally lauded internationally. This finding shows that concerns about the U.S. ability to balance the interests of NATO allies with those of its partners in East Asia and the Global South were not realised.

Authors

• Lauren Sukin, London School of Economics

• Alexander Lanoszka, University of Waterloo

• Stephen Herzog, Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey