The Election of Latino Republicans to Congress and State Legislatures

• In Event: Political Ambition and Candidate Emergence

Abstract

In the aftermath of the 2020 election, the perplexing support from Latinos for the Republican Party, particularly in South Florida and South Texas, sparked curiosity among pundits and journalists. Despite the majority favoring President Joe Biden, a persistent 27-30 percent of Latinos nationwide consistently backed Republicans in presidential elections. Contrary to expectations that Donald Trump's stringent stance on Mexican immigrants would diminish Latino support, a notable surge in Latino Republicans running for and winning state legislatures emerged since 2018.

This article employs data on state and national legislative candidates from 2018 and 2020, coupled with district-level demographic data, to delve into the success factors of Latino Republican candidates and assess regional variations in candidacy and victory. The study initially examines how the gender and national origin of Latino Republican candidates contribute to their success across all districts, revealing a rising trend of success in areas with low Hispanic populations. Subsequently, incorporating measures for legislator and district ideologies, the article evaluates the predictive power of ideology in determining Latino Republican electoral success. This approach also enables a comparison of the ideological differences between Latino Republicans and their counterparts from other ethnicities.

In conclusion, the article discusses how ideology may enhance the appeal and relatability of Latino Republican candidates to voters in districts with low Hispanic populations. By unraveling the intricacies of Latino Republican success and ideological positioning, this study contributes to a nuanced understanding of the factors shaping Latino political representation, particularly in unexpected geographic and demographic contexts.

Authors

• Robert Daniel Alvarez, University of Houston

• Jason P. Casellas, University of Houston