Crossroads of Choice: Navigating Ideological Diversity in Opposition Alliances

• In Event: Political Parties in Transitional Democracies and Authoritarian Regimes

Abstract

Pre-electoral alliances are often crucial for opposition forces in electoral authoritarian regimes to challenge the incumbent and potentially secure victory. However, the formation of alliances between ideologically diverse parties carries the risk of alienating voters who strongly oppose certain alliance members. Addressing this trade-off, we examine three rationales that drive voter support for alliances: minimal, maximal, and median distance to the participating parties. Conducting a face-to-face survey across 26 Turkish cities prior to the 2023 general elections, our study reveals that a majority of voters who favor any party within the alliance (Millet İttifakı) also support the opposition alliance as a whole. While opposition party supporters who strongly dislike another party within the alliance are less likely to support the opposition alliance, exposing respondents to proposed democratic reforms advocated by the alliance's candidate mitigates their aversion towards other alliance parties. These findings have implications for effectively forming strategic alliances to counter authoritarianism.

Authors

• Ugur Ozdemir, University of Edinburgh

• Marc S. Jacob, University of Notre Dame