Diaspora Statecraft and China’s Foreign Influence Activities

• In Event: Major Power Competition and Internal Politics in Asia

Abstract

Governments often attempt to use diaspora populations to promote foreign policy interests and safeguard their hold on political power. Amid heated debates over China’s foreign influence activities, diaspora communities – despite their considerable heterogeneity – are often perceived to be geopolitical instruments by both the Chinese government and host countries. But how much political traction has China gained through diaspora statecraft? Drawing on evidence from two ‘most different’ cases, Australia and Malaysia, I analyze the effectiveness of Beijing’s diaspora mobilization strategies, examining (i) the nature of diaspora-societal relations; and (ii) the presence of internal cleavages within diaspora communities. I argue that diaspora mobilization is a double-edged sword. While marginalization might facilitate mobilization, it also decreases diasporic political influence in host countries. Additionally, established and diverse overseas Chinese communities are more likely to complicate Beijing’s efforts. Moreover, there is a tension between the direct signaling of short-term diaspora mobilization versus longer-term cultivation with more diffuse outcomes. Overt diaspora mobilization may, paradoxically, undermine the effectiveness of diasporas as tools of political influence by undermining plausible deniability and provoking host country overreaction. These findings suggest that the Chinese government faces constraints on its ability to wield the diaspora as a pliant and effective tool of foreign influence. This has important implications for understanding when and how illiberal regimes can leverage different tools for security competition and geopolitical gain, as well as the effects of diaspora mobilization on host country political and social cohesion.

Author

• Audrye Wong, University of Southern California